2.1  PHILOSOPHY

Scientists have been very successful in understanding and finding unifying principles. Many people take the resulting technology for granted and do not understand the limitations of humans as being part of the physical world. There are moral laws (or principles), civil laws and physical laws. Moral laws have been broken such as, murder and adultery; civil laws have been broken, as most everybody has driven over the speed limit; BUT NOBODY BREAKS A PHYSICAL LAW.

Therefore, we can only work with nature and we can not do anything which violates the physical world. Another way of stating this, YOU CAN NOT FOOL MOTHER NATURE.

2.1.1    Advantages/Disadvantages of Renewable Energy

The advantages of renewable energy are: sustainable (non depletable), ubiquitous (found everywhere across the world in contrast to fossil fuels and minerals), and essentially non-polluting.

The disadvantages of renewable energy are: variability, low density, and generally higher initial cost. For different forms of renewable energy, other disadvantages or perceived problems are visual pollution, odor from biomass, avian with wind plants, and brine from geothermal. I am sure that where ever a large facility is to be located there will be perceived and real problems to the local people. For conventional power plants using fossil fuels, for nuclear energy, and even for renewable energy there is the problem of not in my backyard. Notice the infrastructure problems associated with transmission lines for electricity and pipelines for oil and gas.
 

2.1.1    Economics

Business entities always couch their concerns in terms of economics. We can not have a clean environment because it is uneconomical. Renewable energy is not economical. We must be allowed to continue our operations as in the past, because if we have to install new equipment, we can not compete with other energy sources. We will have to reduce employment, jobs will go overseas, etc.

The different types of economics to consider are pecuniary, social, and physical.

Pecuniary is what everybody thinks of as economics, DOLLARS.

Social (sometimes called externalities) economics are those borne by everybody. Externalities may be negative or positive. Many businesses want the general public to pay for their environmental costs. A good example is the use of coal in China, as any city of any size has air pollution equivalent to Pittsburg of 1900. They have laws (social) for clean air, but they are not enforced. The cost will be paid in the future in terms of health problems, especially for the children today.  If environmental problems affects someone else today or in the future, who pays? The estimates of the pollution costs for generation of electricity by coal range from $0.005 to 0.10/kWh.

Physical economics is the energy cost and the efficiency of the process, ENERGETICS. A system for producing energy must be a net energy gainer. What is the energy content at the end use versus how much energy is used in the production and transport and/or transmission? Therefore, the energetics of the process has to be calculated.

There are fundamental limitations in nature due to physical laws. In the end Mother Nature always wins or the corollary, pay now or probably pay more in the future. On that note, we should be looking at life cycle costs, rather than our ordinary way of doing business, low initial costs and then payments over time.

Finally, we should look at incentives and penalties for the energy entities. What each entity wants is incentives (subsidies) for themselves and penalties for their competitors. Penalties come in the form of taxes, environmental and other regulations, while incentives come in the forms of break on taxes, do not have to pay social costs on their product, and the government pays for research and development. How much should we subsidize businesses for exporting overseas?

It is estimated that we use energy sources in direct proportion to the incentives that source has received in the past. There are many examples of the above.

A major unifying concept is energy and how energy is transferred. The area of physics which deals with heat, a form of energy, is called thermodynamics.

2.2  DEFINITION OF ENERGY AND POWER

To understand wind turbines, the definitions of energy and power are needed.  Work is the force on an object moved through some distance.
 

A number of symbols will be used and problems can be solved with the availability of personal computers, spread sheets, and calculators. Examples are supplied for illustration and understanding.

Many people have a mental block as soon as they see mathematical symbols, but everybody uses symbols. Ask most any person what piano means and they understand the symbol, but to a South Seas Islander, a piano is "A big black box, you hit him in teeth and he cries." By the same token, equation 2.1 can be understood as a short hand notation for the words and concepts written above.

Moving objects, doing work, and changing position requires energy, so energy and work are measured by the same units.

• Joule, calorie, BTU, kilowatt hour (kWh)
• calorie = amount of energy required to raise 1 gm of water 1 degree centigrade
• British Thermal Unit (BTU) = amount of energy required to raise 1 lb of water 1 degree Fahrenheit.

Some conversion factors:

• 1 cal  =  4.12 J
• kilocalorie (1 Cal, the unit used in nutrition = 1 kcal)  =  1,000 calories
• 1 BTU  =  1055 J
• 1 barrel of oil (42 gal)  =  6.12 X 10⁹ J  =  1.7 X 10³ kWh
• 1 ton of coal  =  2.5 X 10⁷ BTU  =  2.2 X 10¹⁰ J
• 1 cubic foot of natural gas = 1000 BTU
• 1 therm = 10⁵ BTU = 100 cu ft of natural gas
• 1 quad  =  10¹⁵ BTU
• 1 kWh  =  3.6 X 10⁶ J = 3.4 * 10³ BTU
• 1 horsepower  =  0.75 kW

Natural gas is sold by the mcf, 1,000 cubic feet. You need to be careful when comparing energy from coal with other sources, because 1 ton = 2,400 lbs, 1 short ton = 2,000 lbs, and 1 metric ton = 2,200 lbs (metric ton = 1000 kg and 1 kg = 2.2 lbs). A barrel of oil gives around 19 gallons of gasoline plus other components.

Objects in motion can do work, therefore they possess energy, kinetic energy (KE):

where m is the mass of the object and v is its speed.

Example:  A car with a mass of 1000 kilograms (kg) moving at 10 m/s has a kinetic energy of
 

    KE = 0.5 * 1000 * 10 * 10 = 50,000 J

Because objects interact, for example by gravity, then due to their relative position they can do work or have energy, potential energy (PE).  To raise a 1 kg mass 1 meter high requires 10 J of energy.  At that upper level, that object has 10 J of potential energy. Energy from fossil fuels is chemical energy, which is the potential energy due to the electromagnetic interaction.

Power is the rate of energy use or production.

 

If it takes one second to raise that 1 kg mass, because the energy used is 10 Joules, then the power is 10 watts.  If either power or energy is known then the other can be calculated for any time period.

 

Example:  A 10 kilowatt electric motor which runs for one hour consumes 10 kWh of energy.  A kilowatt (kW) is a measure of power and a kilowatt hour (kWh) is a measure of energy.

Example:  Ten, 100 Watt, light bulbs which are left on all day will consume 24 kWh of energy.

Heat is another form of energy, thermal energy. Heat is just the internal kinetic energy (random motion of the atoms) of a body. Rub your hands together and they get warmer. As you heat your home, you are increasing the speed of the air particles. Heat and temperature are different. Heat is energy and temperature is the potential for transfer of heat from a hot place to a cold place.
 

Example of difference between heat and temperature: Would you rather stick your finger in a cup of hot coffee, T = 80 deg C, or get hit by a high speed proton, T = 1,000,000 deg C. One has much more energy than the other.

 
2.3  FUNDAMENTALS CONCERNING ENERGY

Today's understanding of energy can be embodied in the following laws or principles of thermodynamics:

1. Energy is conserved.  Energy is not created or destroyed, only transformed from one form to another.  In layman's terms, this means that all you can do is break even. A number of patents have been issued for perpetual motion machines [1], a device which produces more energy than the energy needed to run the machine. A number of people have invested money in such machines, but needless to say, the money was lost since the devices contradict the first law of thermodynamics.
2. Thermal energy, heat, cannot be transformed totally into work. In layman's terms, you cannot even break even. Or it takes energy to move heat from a cold place to a hot place (refrigerator, heat pump for house in the winter time). Another way of looking at it is that systems tend toward disorder and in transformations of energy, disorder increases. In succinct terms, entropy is increasing.

This means that some forms of energy are more useful than other forms. For example, the energy in a gallon of gasoline is not lost but only transformed into heat by a car. However, after the transformation, that energy is dispersed into a low grade form (more entropy) and cannot be used to do more work.
 

2.4    ENERGY DILEMMA IN LIGHT OF LAWS OF THERMODYNAMICS

We do not have an energy crisis as energy can not be created or destroyed, only transferred. We have an energy dilemma in the use of the energy resources and their affect on the environment.

The first and primary objective of any energy policy must be conservation and efficiency. It is most economical barrel of oil to drill.

2.4.1  Conservation

Conservation means if you do not need it, do not turn it on or use it. President Carter's admonition to reduce the thermostat setting and having a speed limit of 55 mph were conservation measures. Demand Side Management (DSM) is a way to conserve energy. High prices and shortages, for example in the California electrical crisis of 2000-2001 increased conservation. In general, utility companies like to sell more electricity, rather than have customers save energy.
 

2.4.2  Efficiency

Efficiency is measure of energy for the function and/or product divided by the energy input.

Efficiency = energy out/energy in

Energy can be used to do work (mechanical energy), to heat an object or space (thermal energy) and be transformed to electrical energy or stored as potential or chemical energy.  In each transformation, an upper limit on efficiency can be determined by the second law of thermodynamics.
 
In thermal processes, this efficiency is determined by the temperatures of the hot and cold reservoirs.
 

 
In an electrical generating plant which uses steam at 700 deg C (973 deg K) and on the down side is cooled by water to 300 deg C (573 deg K), the maximum efficiency possible is around 0.41 or 41%.  Modern power plants have efficiencies of around 40%. In other words, 60% of the stored chemical (or nuclear) energy is rejected and 40% is converted into electricity.
 
Remember temperature is a measure of potential for heat transfer and is not a measure of energy.

T_{deg K}  =  T_{deg C}  +  273

Since efficiency is always less than 1, for a system or device to continue to operate, energy must be obtained from outside the system.  For every energy transformation there is an efficiency, and the total efficiency is the product of the individual efficiencies (multiply).

EXAMPLE:  Lights in your home from a coal plant.
 

 
You can see why fluorescence lights for commercial buildings and compact fluorescence lights for your home are so important. This also says that daylighting can save money, especially during the summer as you do not need air conditioning for the heat given off by the lights.

In the physical world, subsidies or economics ($) do not change the outcome. For example, at some point in the future it will take more energy to drill for oil than the amount of energy in the oil produced. At that point, it is foolish to subsidize the drilling for oil as an energy source. It might be that the product is so useful as a liquid fuel or as a source for other products, that it could be subsidized by other energy sources. Another example is that a glass of orange juice is a net energy loser in temperature climates. What are the energetics of producing ethanol (gasohol) from grain?

Prior to the oil crisis of 1973, industry and business maintained that efficiency was not cost effective and that GDP was tied directly to the use of energy. Industry changed and the United States saved billions of dollars since 1973 by increased efficiency in industry and higher efficiency for transportation. Every President since 1973 has called for energy independence, primarily due to the importation of foreign oil. Again today, President Bush's energy policy maintains we have to drill for more oil and gas and as in the past, and the automobile industry is again fighting against increasing fuel efficiency. The argument is again couched in terms of economics (we can not compete with foreign manufacturers of small cars), consumers will not buy fuel efficient cars (advertising pushes large motors and SUVs) and safety. The safety issue means everybody should drive an M1 tank or a semitruck, to heck with the fuel efficiency, or at least we all deserve big Cadillacs.

Another example of efficiency is cogeneration or today referred to as combined heat. In the production of electricity, the low grade (lower temperature) energy can be used for other processes. About 60% of the heat from electricity generation by steam (coal, oil, gas and even nuclear) is not used. In Europe, some electric power plants have heating districts associated with them.

As an example of efficiency, Congress passed laws for corporate average fuel efficiency (CAFE). This law has saved the United States billions of dollars for imported oil. The problem is that sports utility vehicles were counted as light trucks and their fuel consumption is around 13 to 17 mph, so the overall the fuel efficiency has fallen from 25 mpg to 24 mph. In the news January 2002, the manufacturers got the light truck efficiency to be the same for another year, so no changes are possible until 2005. Should we subsidize the drilling for more oil or subsidize more fuel efficient vehicles?

An interesting note; the big three have received over 2 billion dollars in R&D from the government for the Partnership for New Generation of Vehicles [2]. The goal was a sedan for 5 people which would obtain 80 mpg. The automotive manufacturers are saying there is no way to reach that goal. President Bush is now promoting government incentives for fuel cells.

Amory Lovins, who was emphatically right about the soft energy path in response to the first energy crisis, is strongly advocating hybrid cars. And guess what, today there are three hybrid cars on the market, Toyota Prius (57 mph highway), Honda Civic (57 mph highway) and a 2 seater, Honda Insight (68 mph highway). Just think what hybrid cars could do to alleviate the present energy dilemma of too much imported oil for the United States. Again, the question is, where should the federal government place their incentives. It might be cheaper to subsidize higher efficient cars than to subsidize drilling for oil.

OPEC wants to keep the price of oil in the range where they make a lot of money, however not so high as to encourage conservation and efficiency. HOWEVER, AT SOME POINT THE DEMAND FOR OIL ACROSS THE WORLD WILL BE HIGHER THAN CAN BE SUPPLIED. At the point where world oil production starts to decline, we will have higher prices. The prediction is that world oil production will peak in this decade, 2001-2010 [3]. The prediction uses the same type of analysis (1950s) that predicted United States oil production would peak in the 1970s.
 
2.5  EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

Our energy dilemma can be analyzed in terms of the fundamental principles.  A corollary of the first law of thermodynamics; it is a physical impossibility to have exponential growth of any product or exponential consumption of any resource in a finite system.
 

The present rate of consumption and the size of the system give a tendency for people to perceive the resource as either infinite or finite. The total energy output of the sun and the amount of mass in the solar system appear to be an infinite source at the present rates of use, even though the solar system is finite. The energy dilemma is defined within the context of the system and our present energy dilemma is due to the finite amount of fossil fuels on the earth.       The easy way to understand exponential growth (Fig. 2.1) is to use the example of money.  Suppose Sheri receives a beginning salary of $1/year with the stipulation that the salary is doubled every year, a 100% growth rate.  It is easy to calculate the salary by year (Table 2.1).  After 30 years, her salary is one billion dollars per year.

Figure 2.1. Exponential growth curve

Notice that for any year, the amount needed for the next period is equal to the total sum for all the previous periods plus one.

Suppose a small growth is used, the doubling time (T₂) can be calculated by,
 

Doubling times for some different yearly rates are given in Table 2.2.
 

There are numerous historical examples of growth; population, 2-3%/yr; gasoline consumption, 3%/yr; world production of oil, 5-7%/yr; electrical consumption, 7%/yr. Notice that if we plotted the value per year for smaller rates of growth (Fig. 2.2), the curve would be the same as Figure 1, only the time scale along the bottom would be different.  Notice that for population growth, the project for the future assumes that the growth rate will decrease from 1.3% today to 0.5% in 2050. The United Nations projects a leveling off at 11 billion people by 2200.

HOWEVER EVEN WITH SMALLER RATES OF GROWTH, THE FINAL RESULT IS STILL THE SAME.  WHEN CONSUMPTION GROWS EXPONENTIALLY, ENORMOUS RESOURCES DO NOT LAST VERY LONG. Order of magnitude calculations (answers with one or at most two significant digits to power of ten) makes the analysis quite clear.
 

2.6  USE OF FOSSIL FUELS

The night sky of the Earth taken by satellite (Fig. 2.3) illustrates the tremendous amount of energy radiating into space. In the United States, 6% of the world's population, consumes around 27% of the world's energy resources and 50% of the mineral resources. It is physically impossible to continue to consume fossil fuels exponentially. 

Oil and Natural Gas: The magnitude of the problem can be seen by the cost for oil imports in the US. In 1973, when consumption was 16 million barrels of oil per day and approximately 40% was imported, the cost was $500 million per day or around $100 billion per year for oil at $40/bbl. Even though consumption of imported oil was reduced in the 80's, the cost for imported energy was still quite expensive. In the 90's oil consumption and imports in the US increased again toward the previous levels where one half is imported. As of 2003, world oil production/consumption is around 80 million barrels per day and the United States oil consumption is around 20 million barrels per day with one half of that imported. World oil production is predicted to peak in this decade and reserves are estimated at 2 *10¹² bbls [3].

 
M. King Hubbert, a world authority on estimating energy resources, began his analysis in the early 50's when he was with Shell Research. Much of the data and graphs on our energy dilemma come from his publications [4].
 

The important concept is that crude estimates of resources give fairly good answers as to when the resource will be consumed under exponential growth. Also, predictions on the future use of the resource can be made from past production as a finite resource will probably be similar to the bell curve (Fig. 2.4).  In 1956, Hubbert predicted that United States oil production would peak around 1970, which it did.  Notice in Figure 2.5 that even if a larger resource base is assumed, with exponential growth, the larger resource is used up at about the same time. Also, as the resource is used, it becomes more difficult to obtain the resource (Fig. 2.6), i.e. it takes more energy to obtain the resource. The same predictions can also be made for natural gas (Fig. 2.7) and coal.

Figure 2.4  The bell curve

The bell curve will not be exact as advanced technology will allow us to recover more of the fossil fuels and extend the time the resource is available. However the end result is still the same. The actual production for oil and gas in Texas (Figs. 2.8, 2.9) corroborates the above analysis [5].  Notice the difference between predictions made in 90-91 and the actual oil and gas production in Texas since that date. The predictions were based on oil at $20-25/bbl with the State Comptroller basing their prediction on the continuation of past production (bell curve). The prediction for natural gas was based on $3/(thousand cubic feet). Oil production in Texas followed the low prediction curve while gas production decline followed the advanced technology prediction. Advanced technology has not slowed the decline in oil production in Texas. Even though Texas is the major producer in the United States for oil and gas, in the years 1994-95 Texas became an net importer of energy.

 
World oil and gas exploration and production will follow the same pattern as that in the United States. The reaction to the oil crises of 73-80 was increased efficiency, which shows as a dip in production (Fig. 2.10). However as developing countries demand more energy, the % increase in demand and production will in general follow the bell curve. In 2003 the price of oil was around $30/bbl, quite a bit higher than the $12/bbl of 1999. However even if the prediction of cheap energy ($20/bbl) for the short term is correct (Fig. 2.11), the long term predictions (even the high world oil price case) are probably low.
 

Coal:  Each fossil fuel industry touts the use of their product. The World Coal Institute is promoting the sustainable development of coal. In 2001 coal provided 23% of the primary energy for the world and 38% of global electricity. In China 75% of their electricity is provided by coal and coal also provides a major portion of heating and cooking. China has major pollution and health problems in any city of 100,000 or more people due to the use of coal. Production of coal has increased by 47% in the last 25 years with production of 4 * 10⁹ short tons of hard coal and 1 * 10⁹ short tons of brown/lignite in 2000. The World Coal Institute estimates the proven coal reserves will last 200 years. Does that 200 years include increased production as coal producers want to increase their share of the energy market?  Of course use of coal produces pollution and carbon dioxide emissions. For more information go to Energy Information Agency or for the industry viewpoint,  www.wci-coal.com.
 

In the long term, the use of fossil fuels could be called the fickle finger of fate (Fig. 2.12).  Possible futures are conservation (saving of energy, more efficient use of energy), steady state with no growth, catastrophe and/or catastrophe with some revival (Fig. 2.13).
 

2.7  NUCLEAR

The first commercial plant was built in 1957 and today there are 438 nuclear power plants in the world with 103 in the United States. They provide around 17% of global electricity; with the largest being France at 70%.  The United States has not built any new nuclear plants in a number of years and the % of electricity produced by nuclear power has declined from 23 to 20% as new plants are primarily fired by natural gas. US plants have around a 70% capacity factor, because they are older plants. Nuclear power had a large amount of funding for R&D in the US and continues to receive substantial federal funding. Again go to the Energy Information Agency for more information.
 

FUEL FOR ELECTRIC GENERATION IN UNITED STATES
    2003 data from The Edison Electric Institute
 

2.8  MATHEMATICS OF EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

Values of future consumption, r, can be calculated from the present rate, r_o, and the fractional growth per time period, k.

 

 
where e is the base of the natural log and t is the time.

Example:  Present consumption is 100 units/year and growth rate is 7% per year.

 r_o  =  100 units/year
 k   =  0.07 /year
suppose  t  = 100 years.

 
The consumption per year after 100 years is a 1000 times larger than the present rate of consumption.
NOTE:  No units on the exponent.
 

DOUBLING TIME

Doubling time, T₂ in years, for any growth rate can be calculated from Eq. 2.7.
 

or

T₂  =  69/R

which is Eq. 2.6, where R is the percentage growth rate per year.

The total sum of the resource used from any initial time to any final time, T, can be estimated by summing up the consumption per year. This can be done by using a spread sheet on personal computers. If r is known as a function of time then the total consumption can be found by integration. For exponential growth, the total consumption is given by

 

	2.8

2.9  LIFETIME OF A FINITE RESOURCE

If the magnitude of the resource is known, or can be estimated, then the time, T_e, when that resource is used up, can be calculated for different growth rates.  Size of resource, S = C is put in Eq. 2.8, and the resulting equation is solved for T_e,  the end time. 

 
 
If the demand is small enough or is reduced exponentially, a resource can essentially last forever.  However, with increased growth, T_e can be calculated for different resources, and the time before the resource is used up is generally short (Table 2.3).

 Table 2.3:  Time when domestic oil will be used up for US.  In 1970, r_o = 3.3 x 10⁹ bbl/yr.

Resource base R1 is for the contiguous US, 94 x 109 bbl

R2 includes Alaska, 104 x 109 bbl

 

According to the energy companies, the continued growth in energy use in the United States is to be fueled by our largest fossil fuel resource, coal, and nuclear. How long can coal last if we continue to increase production to offset decline in production of oil and to reduce the need for importation of oil? The preceding analysis will allow you to make order of magnitude estimates. Also increased or even current production rates of fossil fuels may have major environmental effects. Global warming has become an international political issue.

 
2.10  SUMMARY

Continued exponential growth is a physical impossibility in a finite (closed) system.  Previous calculations made about the future are just estimations and possible solutions to our energy dilemma are:

1. Conservation and more efficient use of energy. Since the first energy crisis, this has been the most cost effective mode of operation. It is much cheaper to save a barrel of oil than to discover new oil and/or to import oil.
2. Reduce demand to zero growth rate and begin a steady state society.
3. Redefine the size of the system: colonize the planets and space. From our present viewpoint, the resources of the solar system are infinite and our galaxy contains over 100 billion stars.

Because the earth is finite for population and for the amount of fresh water, fossil fuels, and minerals [6], a change to a sustainable society which depends primarily on renewable energy becomes imperative on a long time scale.

For the United States, we will have to do the following in the transition period (next 25 years):

1. Conservation and efficiency
2. Increase the use of renewable energy
3. Continued dependence on natural gas
4. Use of coal has to include all social costs (externalities)
5. Incentives and penalties need to be in line with items 1 and 2.
    

State and local polices must be the same. Efficiency can be improved in all the major sectors; residential, commercial, industrial, transportation and even the primary electrical utility industry. The most gains can be accomplished in the transportation, residential, and commercial sectors. National and state and even local building codes will improved energy efficiency in buildings.

Finally there are a number of things that you as an individual can do in conservation and energy efficiency.

 
LINKS

Energy Information Administration, US Dept. of Energy        www.eia.doe.gov
The EIA site contains a lot of information on US and international energy resources and production.
  International energy outlook http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/contents.html
  Annual Data  http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/contents.html
  Data files can be downloaded, PDF and spreadsheets.

Oil and gas production in Texas are regulated by the Texas Railroad Commission.
http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/divisions/og/og.html

United Nations:  Information on population and projections on population
http://www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm

US Census has information on world population
http://www.census.gov
 
 

GENERAL

Lester R. Brown, et. al., State of the World, 1986, W.R. Norton, 1986.
Wilson Clark, Energy for Survival:  The Alternative to Extinction, Anchor Press, 1974.
Thomas H. Lee, Ben C. Ball, and Richard D. Tabors, Energy Aftermath, Harvard Business School Press, 1990.
Amory Lovins, Soft Energy Paths, Toward a Durable Peace, Ballinger, 1977.
John Naisbitt, Megatrends, Warner Books, 1982.
Norris W. Firebaugh and Lon C. Ruedisili, Editors, Perspectives on Energy, Oxford University Press, 1978.
Timothy J. Healy, Energy, Electric Power and Man, Boyd & Fraser, 1974.
Nicholas Lenssen, "Providing Energy in Developing Countries," State of the World 1993, W.W. Norton, 1993, p. 101.
Howard T. Odum, Environment, Power and Society, Wiley-Interscience, 1975.
Robert H. Romer, Energy, An Introduction to Physics, W.H. Freeman, 1976.
Managing Planet Earth, Special Issue, Scientific American, Sep 1989.
Energy for Planet Earth, Special Issue, Scientific American, Sep 1990.
John Gever, Robert Kaufmann, David Skole, Charles Vorosmarty, Beyond Oil,The Threat to Food and Fuel in the Coming Decades, Ballanger Publishing, 1987.
Walter Youngquist, GeoDestinies, The inevitable control of Earth resources over nations and individuals, National Book Co, 1997.
Michael T. Klare, Resource Wars, The New Landscape of Global Conflict, Metropolitian Books, 2001.
Gretchen Daily and Kathrine Ellison, The New Economy of Nature, 2002.
Articles from Scientifice American, March 1998.
              Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrere, The End of Cheap Oil
              Richard L. George, Mining for Oil
              Roger N. Anderson, Oil Production in the 21st Century
              Safaa A. Fouda, Liquid Fuels from Natural Gas

SPECIFIC

1. Ken Adler, "The Perpetual Search for Perpetual Motion", American Heritage of Invention and Technology, Summer 1986, p 58.
2. "Supercar", Sci Am, April 1999, p 46.
3. Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Hubbert's Peak, The Impending World Oil Shortage, Princton University Press, 2001.
4. M. King Hubert, "Energy Resources", Resources and Man: National Academy of Sciences, W.H. Freeman, 1969, pp 157-242, also in Perspectives on Energy, p 109, and "Energy Resources of the Earth", Sci. Am., 1971, p 60.
5.  State of Texas Energy Policy Partnership, STEPP, Volume One, Printed by The Railroad Comission, Austin, Texas, March 1993.
6. Michael Klare, Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict, Metropolitian Books, 2001.
    

1. Go to the US Census site and look at population clock in upper right:  What is the population of the US?, the world?
2. List 3 ways you are going to save energy this year.
3. Go to the Energy Information Administration (international) site. What is the world oil production for 2001? What is the world coal production for 2001 (be sure you know the units)?
4. Would you rather stick your finger in a cup of hot coffee (T = 80 deg C) or be hit by a high speed proton which has a temperature of 1,000,000 deg C?  Justify your answer.

ORDER OF MAGNITUDE ESTIMATES
In terms of energy consumption, production, supply and demand, estimates are needed and an order of magnitude calculation will suffice. By order of magnitude, we mean an answer (1 significant or at most 2 significant digits) to a power of ten.

Example: How many seconds in a year. With a calculator it is easy
365 days * 24 hr/day * 60 min/hr * 60 sec/hr = 31,536,000 seconds
When you round to one significant digit, this becomes 3 * 10⁷ seconds.
Two significant digits, answer is 3.2 * 10⁷ seconds.

Order of magnitude estimate.  Round all input to one number with power of ten, then multiply the numbers and add the powers of ten. So without a calculator, the above becomes:
4 *10²  *   2 *10¹   *   6 *1 0¹   *   6 * 10¹  = 4 * 2 * 6 * 6  *10⁵ =  288 * 10⁵   =
3 * 10² *  10⁵  =  3 * 10⁷
If you have trouble with powers of ten, please email me.
 

1. A snowball, mass = 0.5 kg, is thrown at 10 m/s.  How much kinetic energy does it possess?  What happens to that energy after you are hit with that snowball?
2. OM: The Chamber of Commerce and the Board of Development are always promoting their city as the place for new industry.  If a city has a population of 100,000 and a growth rate of 10% per year, what is the population after 5 doubling times?  How many years is that?
3. OM: The world population in 2003 was around 6.3 billion.  How many people will there be on the earth by the year 2100?  Assume present rate of growth of world population.
4. OM:  If the growth rate of population could be reduced to 0.5% per year, how much longer would it take to reach the same population as in problem 3 for the year 2100?
5. OM:  Population of the world is estimated to stabilize at 12 * 10⁹.  Mexico City is the largest city in the world at 2 * 10⁷ people. How many new cities the size of Mexico City will have to be built to accommodate the increase in population?
6. OM:  The most economical size of nuclear power plants is around 1000 megawatts.  How many nuclear power plants would have to be built in Texas over the next 50 years to meet the long term historical growth of 7% per year in demand for electricity?  In 2002 the generating capacity for the State was around 70,000 megawatts.
7. OM:  From problem 5, what is the total cost if the installed cost of a nuclear plant is around $1800/kW?  Suppose coal plants were installed at $800/kW, what is the cost.
8. OM:  If the plants in problem 5 were fueled by coal, how many tons of coal would be needed for the year 2050?  Use the following conditions; plants were operated at 95% capacity and the efficiency of conversion is 35%.
9. What is the efficiency at a nuclear power plant if the incoming steam is at 700 degrees C and the outgoing steam is at 310 degrees C.  Remember you have to use degrees K.
10. The Hawaii Natural Energy Institute tested a 100 kW OTEC system (ocean thermal energy conversion).  The surface temperature is 30 degrees C and at a depth of 1 km the temperature is 10 degrees C.  Calculate the maximum theoretical efficiency of an OTEC engine.  Remember you have to use degrees K.
11. OM:  Assume the coal reserves of the United States are 1.5 x10¹² metric tons.  At today's rate of consumption, how long would that last?
12. OM:  For problem 10, assume a growth rate of coal consumption of 10% per year.  How long will the coal last?
13. For your home, estimate the power installed for lighting. Then estimate the energy used for lighting for one year.
14. From problem 12, estimate the energy saved if you converted your lighting from incandescent to compact fluorescence.  Fluorescence lights are more efficient, more light per watt.
15. What is the maximum power (electrical) used by your residence (assume all your appliances, lights, etc. are on at the same time)?
16. OM: World oil production will peak during 2004 to 2009. Estimated reserves are 2 * 10¹² bbls. How long will that last at present rate of consumption?
17. OM: Same as previous problem, but assume a demand increase of 2.5% per year. How long will the oil last?
18. OM: Calculate how long world coal reserves will last if demand increases at rate of 5% per year.
19. OM: US now has 200 million cars, which use 10 million barrels of gasoline per day. The Chinese government goal is the same ratio of people to cars within 20 years. How many cars will they have and how many barrels of gasoline will they be consuming per year?  Oil consumption will be about double your answer.